LAHORE — Pakistan is preparing to overhaul how it tracks crop production, turning to satellite technology to settle long-standing disputes over agricultural statistics — particularly Punjab’s contested cotton output figures.
For years, conflicting numbers from government crop reporting agencies and private sector groups have undermined agricultural planning, making it harder to set realistic import and export policies. The new satellite-driven system, scheduled to roll out next year, aims to deliver a transparent, evidence-backed record of crop acreage and yields.
A High-Tech Solution to a Data Credibility Crisis
The initiative is spearheaded by the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in partnership with China and Pakistan’s Land Information and Management System (LIMS), a digital agriculture platform launched in 2023. The goal is simple: replace manual, sample-based estimates with real-time satellite imagery and field verification to eliminate guesswork.
At the center of this push is a bitter dispute between the Punjab Crop Reporting Service (CRS) and the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA). CRS has been accused of inflating cotton production figures through extrapolations from small sample plots, while PCGA’s critics argue its data reflects only cotton delivered to ginning factories — ignoring stocks still in fields, storage, or shipments to other provinces.
This data gap has damaged Pakistan’s credibility in international cotton markets and complicated policymaking for an already struggling textile sector.
A Battle of Numbers
The scale of disagreement is stark. For FY25, CRS estimated Punjab’s seed cotton production at 609,000 bales as of July 31. PCGA’s tally was less than half that — 301,000 bales.
CRS Director General Dr. Abdul Qayyum defended the agency’s methods, saying its estimates rely on GPS-enabled tools, FAO-approved methodologies, and a digital dashboard designed for transparency. He argued that PCGA’s data is inherently limited and vulnerable to underreporting due to under-invoicing and incomplete coverage of the cotton supply chain.
Qayyum has urged the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to introduce a robust tracking system at every operational ginning unit to create a verified record of cotton movements.
Textile Industry Eyes Control of Cotton Research
In a parallel development, the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) is pushing to take over the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee (PCCC), the country’s main cotton research body. The proposal comes after APTMA and the government settled billions of rupees in unpaid dues owed to PCCC.
Industry leaders believe this takeover could accelerate research into higher-yield and climate-resilient cotton varieties, a crucial step as Pakistan struggles with low per-acre productivity and climate shocks.
Prices Surge Amid Supply Woes
Recent rains in cotton-growing regions have worsened a shortage of premium-quality cotton, pushing market prices up by Rs200 to Rs300 per maund, with rates now hovering between Rs16,400 and Rs16,600 per maund.
Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsanul Haq warned that further rupee depreciation against the dollar could trigger additional price hikes, squeezing textile manufacturers and exporters already under pressure from volatile global demand.
What’s at Stake
With cotton being Pakistan’s largest cash crop and the backbone of its textile exports, accurate data is more than a bureaucratic issue — it’s a necessity for policy credibility, trade negotiations, and farmer confidence. If the satellite initiative delivers on its promise, Pakistan could finally close the gap between field reality and official statistics, restoring trust in one of its most important industries.
